← The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
decks
4
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27
14-12-1
overall winrate
53.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.1%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1218
· median 1201
· range 1010–1460
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1172
Q3 1416
1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +4.1 |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 71.1% | +12.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 39.3% | -8.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Wind Beast | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.5% | -15.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
